Projectdetails

If and how global warming affects hurricane activity is a topic of considerable interest and intensive research efforts. The available instrumental record, however, is still too short to document and understand the complex links within the climate system responsible for hurricanes. Only through extending the records beyond the instrumental measurements by paleo?data, we can capture the full range of natural variability inherent to the climate system. This allows quantification of the separate effects of changing environmental variables. We aim to construct detailed paleo-records from Florida and the Gulf of Mexico for the past 10.000 years which trace back the conditions within the natural system that trigger intensive hurricane seasons. For the first time, paleo-records of precipitation, vegetation, storm induced runoff and sea surface temperatures will be combined in a modeling environment. Only long-term records integrated by modeling the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere system enable the detection of any deviations from the normal state that may consequently be ascribed to ongoing and future human interference with the system.