Detailed project information

In contrast to expectations of the last century that infections could be brought under control, today we increasingly face threats from new emerging agents, transcending species boundaries, entering new geographic areas but also from well-known agents that turn out to be very persistent, escape immunity, that are difficult to control in outbreaks or that continuously evolve and thus, escape existing treatments.

Avian influenza excellently exemplifies these issues: it has repeatedly crossed species-boundaries (e.g. from wild waterfowl to poultry species), continues to escape immunity by frequent mutations and is thus difficult to control in outbreaks. Although it will be impossible to prevent such outbreaks, a fundamental understanding of the origin and spread of influenza viruses (IV) through animal and human populations may play a key role in designing strategies to recognize the threats early and to minimize the risk of outbreaks.

Therefore, we aim to combine epidemiological and behaviour-based models and in particular, to shed light on the role of migratory waterfowl in the spread of infectious diseases by successively testing the assumptions of 1) Within-individual processes: Testing consequences of IV infections on individuals, e.g. on reproductive success, mortality; 2) Between-individual processes: What are the population-level consequences and patterns given the assumptions under 1) and transmission rates/ modes (local and individual events)? For both, we will identify the conditions under which IV may persist in a host-population and determine characteristics of the spatio-temporal spread of IV among populations. Thus, combining epidemiology and bird migration in such model will identify key times and places for the spread of infectious diseases as well as sensitive parts in the dynamics of hosts and pathogens and thereby, provide a basis for potential management actions.

Articles

• Dr. H. Inaba, Dr. H. Nishiura (2008). The basic reproduction number of a infectuous disease in a stable population: The impact of population growth rate on the eradication treshold. . Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena. pp. 194-228
• Dr. H. Inaba, Dr. H. Nishiura (2008). The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model.. Mathematical Biosciences. pp. 77-89
• Dr. H. Nishiura, N Wilson, Mw. M.G. Baker (2009). Quarantine for pandemic influenza control at the borders of small island nations. BMC Infectuous Diseases. pp. 27
• Dr. H. Nishiura (2009). Excess risk of stillbirth during the 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Japan. European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology. pp. 115
• Dr. H. Nishiura, M Safan, G. Chowell, C. Castillo-Chavez (2009). Transmission potential of the new influenza A (H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Eurosurveillance. pp. 19227
• Dr. H. Nishiura, M.G. Roberts, Prof. dr. ir. J.A.P. Heesterbeek, Dr. D. Klinkenberg (2009). Early epidemiological assessment of the virulence of emerging infectious diseases: A case study of an influenza pandemic . PLoS ONE . pp. e6852
• Dr. H. Nishiura, B Hoye, M Klaassen, Prof. dr. ir. J.A.P. Heesterbeek (2009). How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence data in the multi-host population: A case study of influenza in waterfowl. Epidemics. pp. 118-128
• Dr. H. Nishiura, N. Wilson, Mw. M.G. Baker (2009). Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere: preliminary estimate in New Zealand . The New Zealand Medical Journal . pp. 73-77
• Dr. H. Nishiura, K. Iwata (2009). A simple mathematical approach to deciding the dosage of vaccine against pandemic H1N1 influenza. Eurosurveillance. pp. pii=19396
• Dr. H. Nishiura, G. Chowell, M. Safan, C. Castillo-Chavez (2010). Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenze A (H1N1) 2009.. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. pp. 1
• Dr. H. Nishiura, G. Chowell, J. Wallinga, Dr. H. Heesterbeek (2010). The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course.. Journal of the Royal Society Interface . pp. 297-307
• Mw. B.J. Hoye, V.J. Munster, J. Madsen, M. Klaassen, Prof. dr. R.A.M. Fouchier, Dr. H. Nishiura (2011). Reconstructing an annual cycle of ecological interaction: natural infection and antibody dynamics to avian influenza along a migratory flyway.. Oikos. pp. 
• Dr. S.J. Galsworthy, D. Klinkenberg, Q. ten Bosch, M. Klaassen, Prof. dr. ir. J.A.P. Heesterbeek, Mw. B.J. Hoye (2011). Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of Avian Influenza in wild mallard populations. . PLoS One. pp. 
• Mw. B.J. Hoye, V.J. Munster, M. Klaassen, Prof. dr. R.A.M. Fouchier, Dr. H. Nishiura (2011). Avian influenza surveillance in wild birds: a critical assessment for a way forward?. Emerging infectuous diseases. pp.