Energieonderzoek

Quantified Back Casting: Methodological design of transition strategies in the area of sustainable transportation chains

(2003-2009)

Aanvragers:
Prof. dr. Ruud Smits, UU

Overige begeleiders:
Prof. Dr. Marko Hekkert
Prof. Dr. Andre Faaij

Overall aim

The first goal was to develop a quantitative analysis of the development of techno-economic performance of sustainable well-to-wheel systems over time (researcher: Oscar van Vliet, NW&S). This goal is partly been realized. A detailed quantitative analysis of several well-to wheel chains has been made. The results showed the large influence of the uncertainty of parameters in the outcomes of the well to wheel study. Therefore, this analysis has not been extended to a dynamic analysis over time. Instead the research focus has shifted in the direction of agent based models to create more insight in the influence of preferences of actors on technological pathways.

The second goal was to determine the feasibility of transition trajectories using technology specific innovation systems approach (Roald Suurs, IW). This goal has been realized completely. By means of several case studies a detailed insight in the functioning of innovations systems around new automotive fuels has been created. This has led to insights which trajectories are feasible in the future and what needs to be done to accelerate these trajectories.

The third goal was to develop intervention strategies that contribute to a more sustainable transport system (Sylvia Breukers, IW). This goal has partly been realized. We focused specifically on biomass chains and not on all alternatives for a more sustainable transport system. However, for biomass chains, an extensive round of interviews and stakeholder dialogue sessions, delivered possible intervention strategies.

Dissemination of results

The work of Roald Suurs on Technological Innovation Systems has had a huge impact. The basic concepts developed in his thesis are used as a theoretical backbone of the energy innovation agenda which is the innovation strategy of six ministries involved in energypolicy in The Netherlands. The framework is currently heavily used in policy circles like SenterNovem, regieorgaan energietransitie and the ministry of economic affairs. A book (in Dutch) will be published (written by Marko Hekkert) to spur this influence even further. Another proof of the impact of this work is the large amount of presentations given by Marko Hekkert and his colleagues and the number of articles in professional journals related to this topic.  Oscar van Vliet has presented his results in the Netherlands and elsewhere in the EU. His results have so far been used by journalists, and possibly by other parties like policy makers. More publications are forthcoming.

The stakeholder sessions on biofuels proved to be an excellent forum to disseminate the results from the backcasting program to different stakeholders. However, most impact was probably reached by the many presentations for various audiences and interviews in professional journals and newspaper articles.

Project 1: Quantitative analysis of the development of techno-economic performance of sustainable well-to-wheel systems over time

Drs. Oscar van Vliet Msc
Dr. A. Faaij, supervisor
Prof. dr. W.C. Turkenburg, promotor

Dissertation 'Feasibility of alternatives to driving on diesel and petrol'
volledige proefschrift

Overstappen op hybride auto’s met duurzame biobrandstoffen is goedkoper en gemakkelijker dan overstappen op auto’s die op waterstof of elektriciteit rijden. Met de drie genoemde auto/brandstofcombinaties worden echter dezelfde reducties behaald in uitstoot van broeikasgassen en het gebruik van aardolie.
Auto’s die rijden op traditionele fossiele brandstoffen hebben nadelige milieu- en klimaateffecten. Er zijn echter vele alternatieve brandstoffen en duurzame auto’s mogelijk, met elk hun voor- en nadelen. Milieuwetenschapper Oscar van Vliet vergeleek het energieverbruik, de kosten en de uitstoot van broeikasgassen van diverse huidige en alternatieve brandstoffen en voertuigen.
Het onderzoek laat zien dat er vrijwel geen verschil hoeft te zijn tussen de totale kosten van een normale benzine- of dieselauto ten opzichte van een hybride auto die rijdt op biobrandstof. Een (iets) hogere aanschafprijs van de hybride auto wordt namelijk weer teruggewonnen door de brandstofbesparing. De kosten van dit alternatief zijn hiermee lager dan voor de elektrische en waterstofauto’s. Door de hoge kosten van de accu’s en brandstofcellen kunnen deze auto’s momenteel namelijk niet concurreren met de normale voertuigen.
Op papier ontlopen de alternatieve brandstoffen en auto’s elkaar momenteel maar weinig op het gebied van duurzaamheid. Er springt op dit moment geen enkel alternatief bovenuit als het om duurzaamheid gaat. Het is dan ook niet aan te raden om de ene duurzame technologie boven de andere te stimuleren. Wel is duidelijk dat de duurzaamheid van het alternatief sterk afhankelijk is van de manier waarop de biobrandstof of elektriciteit voor de auto wordt geproduceerd en vervoerd. Zo kan een elektrische auto die rijdt op elektriciteit gemaakt in een oude kolencentrale uiteindelijk alsnog net zoveel uitstoot hebben als een gewone benzine- of dieselauto. Er zijn dan ook nog steeds flinke onzekerheden in kosten en uitstoot van broeikasgassen van alternatieve brandstoffen en auto’s. En die zullen blijven totdat ze daadwerkelijk op grote schaal geproduceerd worden.
Voor de meeste mensen mogen alternatieve brandstoffen in ieder geval niet duurder zijn. Maar behalve kosten en uitstoot zijn er nog allerlei andere redenen waarom automobilisten niet overstappen op duurzame alternatieven, zoals comfort, imago en rijprestaties. Die redenen versterken elkaar en zullen daarom allemaal aangepakt moeten worden, volgens dit onderzoek.

Project 2: Determining the feasibility of transition trajectories using technology specific innovation systems approach

Drs. Roald Suurs, Ph.D. student
Dr. M.P. Hekkert, Supervisor
Dr. A. Faaij
Prof. dr. ir. R. Smits, Supervisor, promotor

Dissertation 'Motors of sustainable innovation - towards a theory on the dynamics of technological innovation systems'.
Nederlandse samenvatting kort / volledige proefschrift

The objective of this project was to contribute to a theoretical understanding that allows for the analysis and evaluation of dynamics of technological trajectories around emerging sustainable energy technologies. Although a lot of work remains to be done, this main objective has been achieved. A conceptual framework and methodology has been developed that enabled studying the interactions between system functions in a diverse set of formative TISs. As a result, four typical virtuous cycles - or motors of innovation - were identified: a Science and Technology Push Motor, an Entrepreneurial Motor, a System Building Motor and a Market Motor.

These motors were observed to play an important role in the build-up of Technological Innovation Systems around emerging sustainable energy technologies in the Netherlands and in Sweden. Where these motors emerged, they reorganised the structural configuration of the TIS. In some cases motors expanded and grew into the incumbent energy system, thereby linking up to it and reforming parts of it. This was especially the case for the System Building Motor and the Market Motor.

The creation of a sustainable energy system is about removing structural barriers and about creating structural drivers necessary for the motors of innovation to emerge. It was pointed out, in a variety of case studies, that this requires continuous efforts by governments, firms and other actors. It was also shown that institutions and technologies have to be adjusted or even created in order for the motors to develop further. It cannot be expected that all barriers will be removed at once, or that the strongest driver of all, ‘the market’, will be formed overnight. Rather, a step-by-step approach should be taken by which a TIS is gradually built up over time. This step-by-step approach was labelled the Succession Model of Innovation.

According to the Succession Model, the four motors may be regarded as stages in the development of a formative TIS. It turned out that the immature TISs were less prone to develop anything other than an STP Motor. Only when a TIS was developed enough to generate short-term opportunities for firms did the Entrepreneurial Motor emerge. A System Building Motor was observed as being a transformation of the Entrepreneurial Motor. Finally, the Market Motor was typically developed from structures shaped by a System Building Motor. In general, there was a relation between the motors observed and the maturity of the TIS in terms of actors involved and in terms of technology and institutions. The most powerful motors arose if a TIS was supported by a large variety of actors, institutions and technologies, preferably integrated into networks.

The build-up of a TIS was shown to be a troublesome process, characterised by uncertainty and adversity but also by luck and opportunity. The studies presented in this book indicated that once a motor emerged, this process was accelerated. A small but dedicated group of actors was often able to succeed in inducing a ‘primitive’ motor of innovation with the power to reshape a first set of structural drivers and barriers. Once this was realised, inducing a more advanced motor became possible as a new set of actors became more able and willing to follow up on earlier achievements, benefiting from the initial structural reinforcements in a cumulative fashion.

The Succession Model was used as a basis for formulating strategic lessons directed at policy makers and other practitioners that aspire to understand and influence the development of emerging energy technologies. These recommendations specified which interventions could be taken to support particular motors of innovation, and thereby to further the development of a TIS from one stage of development to another.

Project 3: Long term strategies for realising transition trajectories resulting from back casting scenario's

Dr. Sylvia Breukers

Dit project is nog niet afgerond, wel is een voorlopig factsheet beschikbaar.

Aim of this programme is to arrive at ideas about intervention strategies that contribute to a more sustainable transport system, with biofuels as a case. Some biofuels are at present (commercially) available and applicable. EU as well as Dutch policies for biofuels have been adopted, but at the same time there is a lot of discussion about the extent to which different types of biofuels can in fact be considered sustainable. This discussion is closely related to the discussions on the sustainability of biomass. Hence, next to the question of how to manage technological innovation and market development, the discussions on which options are sustainable will also crucially affect the directions of the innovation pathways This project involves an interactive dialogue, which addresses the options for successful applications of biofuel technologies that contribute to a more sustainable Dutch transport system. The question of the potential contribution of biofuels and biofuel technologies to a more sustainable transport system is placed in the light of other biomass applications. This biomass dialogue is organised in cooperation with the Institute for Environmental Studies (Free University Amsterdam).

The research project consists of a pre-phase (75 interviews and Q sort analysis), three workshops and an evaluation phase. Workshop 1, 2 and 3 are set up according to the backcasting method: first the current situation - current biomass chains - is evaluated (workshop 1). Next, desired future images (in terms of desired biomass chains) are constructed in workshop 2. The third workshop addresses the trajectory towards these desired futures. This is done by reasoning backward from a desired future towards the current situation. In that manner, chances and barriers can be identified. We employ diverse methods and techniques (interview analysis, Q sort analysis, Repertory Grid Analysis and the software and environment of the policy laboratory).

Apart from developing options for interventions, the project aims to connect two PhD research projects to the dialogue. The results of the whole dialogue process provide empirical complementary material for these projects (triangulations). The interest of PhD Project 2 (Roald Suurs) lies largely with the question of how the dynamics of innovation systems can explain the success and failure of emerging technological trajectories in the Dutch biofuel sector. PhD Project 1 (Oscar van Vliet) is among others interested in the role of (scientific) uncertainties in the decision-making of stakeholders.

In August/September 2007, 75 interviews have been conducted with relevant stakeholders from the biomass domain (in collaboration with project team of the Free University). Part of each interview was a Q sort task. Q method stems from the field of psychology, but is increasingly adopted in social sciences to reveal diverse perspectives on an issue. We used it to identify diverse perspectives on biomass. Six resulting perspectives were used as a selection criterion for inviting stakeholders for the first workshop (to ensure diversity in terms of perspectives) and for setting up sub-groups during the workshop (having more ‘homogeneous’ or more ‘heterogeneous’ groups in terms of perspectives). The Q sort findings were reported to all respondents and discussed with the participants at the first workshop-meeting.

The main aim of the first workshop was that stakeholders would discuss the sustainability of current biomass chains - learn about their own and others’ perspectives. In different settings, they discussed the sustainability of 5 current biomass chains (presented to them in advance in word and image). The day-report - involving arguments on those features that are most relevant for the sustainability of each of the 5 chains, as well as counterarguments, points of discussion and observations of the project team - was sent back to the participants afterwards. Workshop 2 focused on identifying new sustainable biomass chains and workshop 3 addressed how these options can be attained. From a future vision the workshop participants developed a strategy on how to realize these visions thereby identifying obstacles and opportunities. Different methods were used in the preparing and executing the workshops; interview analysis, Q-sort analysis, Repertory grid analysis and the policy laboratory.

Output

Proefschriften

  • 2009. Suurs, R.A.A. Motors of sustainable innovation. Towards a theory on the dynamics of technological innovation systems (Thesis). Innovation Studies Group, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht.
  • 2010. Van Viet, O.P.R. Feasibility of alternatives to driving on diesel and petrol (Thesis). Innovation Studies Group, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht.

Publicaties in internationale tijdschriften

  • 2009/10. Suurs, R.A.A. and Hekkert, M.P. Cumulative causation in the formation of a technological innovation system: The case of biofuels in the Netherlands. Technological Forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming).
  • 2009. Suurs, R.A.A. and Hekkert, M.P. Competition between first and second generation technologies: Lessons from the formation of a biofuels innovation system in the Netherlands. Energy (forthcoming).
  • 2009, Van Vliet, O.P.R., Faaij A.P.C. and Turkenburg, W.C. The future of Fischer-Tropsch diesel production in a well-to-wheel perspective: a carbon, energy flow and cost analysis, , in Energy Conversion and Management 50(4): 855-876.
  • 2008. Hillman, K.M., Suurs, R.A.A., Hekkert, M.P. and Sandén, B.A. Cumulative causation in biofuels development: A critical comparison of the Netherlands and Sweden. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 20(5): 593-612.
  • 2008. Negro, S.O., Suurs, R.A.A. and Hekkert, M.P. The bumpy road of biomass gasification in the Netherlands: Explaining the rise and fall of an emerging innovation system. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75(1): 57-77.
  • 2007. Hekkert, M.P., Suurs, R.A.A., Negro, S.O., Kuhlmann, S. and Smits, R.E.H.M. Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74: 413-432.
  • Cuppen, E., Breukers, S., Hisschemöller, M., Bergsma, E. (forthc) . Articulating Divergent Perspectives: Q Methodology in a Participatory Integrated Assessment on Energy Options from Biomass in The Netherlands. submitted to Ecological Economics in Dec. 2008
  • Breukers, S., Cuppen, E., Hisschemöller, M., Suurs, R., Smits, R., Bergsma, E. (2010) Contribution of a of stakeholder dialogue to technological innovation systems research: explorations based on empirical inquiries in the Dutch biomass domains.  Will be submitted soon.

Publicaties op basis van contractonderzoek

  • 2007. Hekkert, M.P., Alkemade, F.A., Negro, S.O., Suurs, R.A.A. and Van Alphen, K. Het versnellen van transitiepaden door het versterken van innovatiesysteemdynamiek. Innovation Studies Group, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht. Contractonderzoek voor het Ministerie van Economische Zaken.
  • 2005. Suurs, R.A.A. and Hekkert, M.P. Naar een methode voor het evalueren van transitietrajecten. Functies van innovatiesystemen toegepast op ‘biobrandstoffen in Nederland’. Innovation Studies Group, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht. Contractonderzoek voor het Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau (MNP).
  • 2003. Hamelinck, C.N., Suurs, R.A.A. and Faaij, A.P.C. International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance (Fair(bio)trade report). Department of Science, Technology & Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht.

Internationale boek bijdragen (geen abstracts)

  • Anna Bergek, Staffan Jacobsson, Marko Hekkert, Keith Smith, Functionality of innovation systems as a rationale for, and guide to innovation policy, in "Innovation Policy - Theory and Practice. An International Handbook".
  • Anna Bergek, Marko P. Hekkert and Staffan Jacobsson, 2007, Functions in innovation systems: A framework for analysing energy system dynamics and identifying goals for system-building activities by entrepreneurs and policy makers, in: ‘Innovations for a Low Carbon Economy: Economic, Institutional and Management Approaches’. Edward Elgar

Publicaties in Nederlandse tijdschriften / Nederlandse boek bijdragen (geen abstracts) / publicaties in de vaktijdschriften

  • Interview in Technologiekrant. 22/11/2008.  Prof. Dr. Marko Hekkert pleit voor een duurzame energiemarkt; ‘stimuleer kleine, innovatieve bedrijven’.
  • Interview in Utilities: Run in Packs, No 10, 2008
  • Duurzame Innovatie te wispelturig, interview in Dagblad van het Noorden, 25 oktober 2008
  • Energiebeleidsmakers zelf in transitie, Interview in Milieu, November 2008
  • Tijd voor een flinke Milieuramp, interview in Het Parool, zaterdag 19 juli 2008.
  • Ingezonden brief: De Rijk schaadt het Milieu, de Volkskrant, 10-03-2008
  • Interview in Stromen: Biobrandstof nog actueel dankzij bedrijfsleven, 2 september 2005, P1
  • Interview in ‘Volkskrant’: Veel hobbels op weg naar biobrandstof: 6 september 2005, P 9
  • Interview in ‘Trouw’: Alleen nieuwe biobrandstoffen de moeite waard: 7 september 2005, P 13
  • Interview in ‘Ublad’: Bijmengen met biobrandstof is O.K., 15 september 2005. P. 13