Energieonderzoek

Transitions and transition paths: the road to a sustainable energy system

(2003-2007)

Aanvragers:
Dr.ir. G.P.J. Verbong, TUE
Prof. dr.ir. J.H. Blom, TUE
Dr.ir. B. Elzen, UT

Overall aim

The general aim of the project was to provide long term perspectives on the development of energy systems. This goal has been reached, in particular for the electricity domain. More specifically the following issues were addressed:

  • Which are the main barriers and opportunities for a transition to a sustainable energy system?
  • How can this knowledge on barriers and opportunities be used for constructing socio-technical scenarios of potential future energy systems for the selected technological domains (electricity systems, bio-fuels) and how can transition paths be identified?
  • What are the consequences for (the options for implementing) policy and policy instruments? 

Dissemination of results

There has been no final integrated product yet. The original idea was to bundle the results in a book or special issue, but this has been impossible, partly because of the fact that the projects could not be executed simultaneously (project 2 finishes in 2009, the others already in 2007), partly because of the time available to the program leader. However, the results will be incorporated in an international book series that will be published by the Dutch Knowledge Network on System Innovations (KSI) in 2010 and 2011. One volume will be dedicated completely to the Energy Transition. The program leader is one of the two editors.

Infrastructure is one of the main topics in the energy domain and in energy policy. The Dutch council on Science Policy (WRR) published a report on infrastructures in 2008 (Infrastructures: time to invest), The Energy Advisory Council (AER) prepares an advice on infrastructures as well. Moreover, there is a lot of debate on how to proceed with the Transition paths and experiments. In these debates researchers from this program participate and use the results of this program (and the follow up EOS LT project). The Ministry of Economic Affairs is well aware that the issue of regulation is the key issue for the coming years. It is not so much about the availability of technologies (although still a lot of research is necessary) but more on how to implement and use those technologies. 

The sounding board group (De Ridder, Kupers, Vaessen) haven been involved in particular in the workshops organized in 2005 and 2007. The contacts with KEMA (Vaessen) have directly resulted in the follow up EOS projects. Furthermore, the contacts have resulted in several MSc-research project carried out at KEMA or in cooperation with KEMA on a broad range of energy topics. Currently we are exploring to expand this cooperation by setting a larger research program for MSc.-students.

Project 1: Energy systems in transition: a multi-regime analysis of the energy system 1970-2000

Dr. ir. R.P.J.M. Raven, TUE

Dit project is in 2007 afgerond.
Download hier het Nederlandse factsheet

This project addressed two main research questions:

  • Which linkages and interactions occurred between different regimes in the energy system in the last 30 years? What were the reasons for these linkages (e.g. new technologies, institutional changes, new functions)? Which mechanisms were important for this linking up?
  • Which opportunities and difficulties did the changing energy system create for new technologies? What was the role of positive feedbacks (e.g. scale effects, knowledge spill over) and negative feedbacks (e.g. mis-match in actor strategies, dependence on complementary technologies)?

This research has contributed to the development of the transition theory. A typology on multi-regime interactions has been developed and published. The relevance his is acknowledged in the recent report ‘Accenten in Funderend energieonderzoek’, NWO, april 2009), in which the need to further explore the impact of a multi-regime setting on the energy transition has been identified as one of the new research themes for further social sciences research in this field (p. 34).

Other important theoretical contributions to the transitions research are the furthers development of the Strategic Niche Management approach by Raven, Geels, Schot and Verbong and a typology of transition pathways by Geels and Schot (2007). These contributions have been a major input in the other projects. Moreover, this project has been very productive in terms of scientific output (see below).

Project 2: Managing bio-fuels

J. Ulmanen MSc, TUE

Dit project is nog niet afgerond, wel is een voorlopig factsheet beschikbaar.

The two main questions in this project were:

  • What are the main opportunities and barriers for bio fuels in the Netherlands in the context of international developments?
  • How can viable niches for bio fuels be constructed?, taking into account:
    • the characteristics of available bio fuel chains
    • the opportunities and barriers in the field of energy, transport, waste management and agriculture and resulting broader societal developments
    • the internal processes of niche construction

The focus in this research project has been on the role of protection in the creation of niches. Although very important in the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) approach (and more general in evolutionary approaches) the concept of protection has not been elaborated too much. This Ph.D. project has provided valuable insights in different types of protection and the role of policy by analyzing biofuel developments both at the level of experiments (or projects) and at the level of the policy. To get a better insight in the peculiarities of the Dutch developments, a comparative analysis of the developments in Sweden, a forerunner in the field of bio fuels, and the Netherlands has been done. On the level of experiments a Strategic Niche Management analysis has made clear, that Sweden has adopted a much broader approach in regard to the implementation of biofuels than the Netherlands. In particular there has been more attention for the creation of markets (“favorable rules”), whereas the developments in the Netherlands have been characterized by a strong orientation on the supply of biofuels. However, using a discourse analysis for the analysis of the developments on the policy level, has made clear that biofuel development has a much longer tradition in Sweden and has been a much more key component in political ambitions and compromises. One of the most striking differences is the role of the EU in this process. In 2009 the empirical part of the these is almost completed. The expectation is that her thesis will be submitted at the end of 2009.

Project 3: Networks of the future

Dr. ir. J.J. Meeuwsen, TUE

J. Meeuwsen rondde op 31 juli 2007 het project af met de publicatie 'Electricity networks of the future, various roads to a sustainable energy system'
Nederlandse samenvatting lang / Nederlands factsheet

This project focus on scenarios about future network topologies for the electricity infrastructure. The main research question was ‘How will the Dutch electricity networks possibly develop in far future (2050)’

Significant changes on the energy market, such as the increase of ecological awareness or the deregulation and liberalization of the European market have a strong impact on functionality and control of the electrical supply system. The increase of less controllable renewable energy sources, the increase of distributed generators in general and the displacement of large scale generators to remote areas cause problems concerning stability and reliability. In order to achieve and to preserve stability, reliability, cost-efficiency and to increase the sustainability of future electricity systems many efforts in the field of e.g. control, interconnection and interaction of generators and networks, defining of new topologies for future transmission and distribution networks and new developments of components and systems for regulation and storage of energy have to be done.

The project has investigated new topologies and network design e.g. hierarchical levels, placing of components, etc., the appraisal of the potential of intelligent distribution and large scale transmission networks and the requirements and developing potential of electrical components. In cooperation with the other projects (in particular project 1 and 4), three scenarios have been further described and evaluated:

1. Autonomous systems
2. Hybrid system
3. Electric super highway system (or Super grid)

This project has been completed in the summer of 2007. Dr. Jos Meeuwsen took in the first year from dr. M. Houben (who left due to health reasons). A final report had been delivered and the results have been presented on a workshop with researchers, representatives of the utilities and network operators and policy makers in June 2007 at TU/e. The results of the project also has been presented at the Cigré-conference in Paris in 2008. Cigré is the international organisation for research on electric networks.

The outcome of this project, in particular the final report by Meeuwsen, has attracted a lot of attention. Several researchers and policy makers have requested or downloaded a copy of the report. Moreover, the results have been extensively used by e.g. Martin Scheepers in his background document for the Ministry of Economic Affairs on the future of the Dutch electricity infrastructure (Scheepers 2008).

Project 4: Sociotechnical scenarios: development of a new tool to explore and stimulate transition to a sustainable electricity system

Dr. P.S. Hofman, UT

Dit project is in 2007 afgerond.
Download hier het Nederlandse factsheet.

The aim of this project was to

  • Analyse existing scenario methods on their strong and weak points in connection with transition processes as a stepping stone for developing STSc;
  • Elaborate a Socio-technical Scenario methodology;
  • Analyse main dynamic of electricity regime in the past decades (in cooperation with project 1);
  • Apply STSc method to the electricity domain (in cooperation with project 3);
  • Develop policy recommendations on the basis of the previous step.

Elzen and Hofman distinguish four different functions that a transition scenario could serve, notably:

  • Stretch mental maps and increase acceptance;
  • Explore potential of novelties that constitute the ‘portfolio of promises’;
  • Inform policy and (business) strategy;
  • Co-ordination and alignment.

These four functions constitute the columns in a matrix, the rows are the seven steps needed in a scenario exercise. The 7 steps were identified in an earlier exploratory study (funded as an NWO/Novem exploratory study). The boxes in the matrix are filled in with requirements for each of these steps to serve the according function.

In earlier work we have developed some methodological guidelines that any scenario should fulfill to be useful to explore transitions. This contains the ‘building box’ of patterns and mechanisms based on the Multi Level Perspective and have led us to identify the 7 steps. This we call the ‘core methodology’. What the matrix does is to identify more specific methodological guidelines to serve a specific function.

We have applied the methodology to develop scenarios for the electricity sector. The first results of this have been described as chapter 7 in the dissertation of P.S. Hofman (2005). Within the framework of the project we have organized a workshop (on 24 November 2005) on our method and the scenarios with participation with Dutch scenario-researchers from different backgrounds. The feedback collected at this workshop has been used in 2007 to elaborate the final version of the methodology and the scenarios. Preliminary results have been presented at a workshop in June 2007 at Tu/e. The final report has been completed at the end of 2007.

The Sociotechnical scenario approach has been identified by other researchers as a useful tool for exploring transition pathways, e.g. in recent work by dr. T. Foxon (University of Leeds). Also several MSc-project have used this methodlogy, e.g. B. van Bree, H2 or e-? Two scenarios for hydrogen as an automotive fuel (executed at Shell Global Solutions)

Output

Scientific publications (project numbers in brackets)

  • R. Raven, G. Verbong , Boundary Crossing Innovations. Case Studies from the Energy Domain, Technology in Society., 31(2009), 85-93 (project 014-28-781)
  • Ulmanen, J.H., Verbong, G.P.J., Raven, R.P.J.M. Biofuel developments in Sweden and the Netherlands. Protection and socio-technical change in a long-term perspective.  Accepted by: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, available online Oct. 26 2008. (project 014-28-782)
  • Verbong, G.  Geels,F.W.,  Raven, R. Failures in Dutch renewable energy innovation policy (1970-2006): Lessons from a multi-niche analysis, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 20, No. 5, 2008, 555–573 (project 014-28-781)
  • Meeuwsen, J.J.. Myrzik, J.M.A., Verbong G.P.J., Kling W.L., Blom,  Electricity networks of the future, Various roads to a sustainable energy system, Cigré conference, Paris 2008 (project 014-28-783)
  • Raven, R.P.J.M., Verbong, G.P.J. (2007) , Multi-regime Interactions in the Dutch Energy Sector. The Case of Combined Heat and Power in the Netherlands 1970-2000,in: 'Technology Analysis and Strategic Management' Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 19(4), 491-507  (project 014-28-781)
  • Laak, W.W. van der, Raven, R.P.J.M., Verbong, G.P.J. (2007) Strategic Niche Management for Biofuels, in Energy Policy 35, Pages 3213-3225 (project 014-28-782)
  • Raven, R.P.J.M., 2006, Towards Alternative Trajectories? Reconfigurations in the Dutch Electricity Regime, in: Research Policy, 35 (4), 581-595 (project 014-28-781)
  • Verbong, G.P.J., Geels, F.W. (2008) , A long-term historical analysis of path dependencies and changes in the Dutch electricity system: Hindrances and possibilities for future energy transitions, in: J. van den Bergh, F. Bruinsma (eds.), The transition to renewable energy: theory and practice (deelproject 014-28-781)
  • Raven, R.P.J.M. (2007) Co-evolution of Waste and Electricity Regimes: multi-regime dynamics in the Netherlands (1969-2003), in: Energy Policy, 35 (4), 2197-2208 (project 014-28-781
  • Raven, R.P.J.M. (2007) Niche accumulation and hybridization strategies for transitions towards a sustainable energy system, in: Energy Policy, 35 (4), 2390-2400 (project 014-28-781)
  • Geels, F.W., Raven, R.P.J.M. (2006) Non-Linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories. Ups and Downs in Biogas Plant Development (1973-2003), in Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 18 (3/4), 375-392 (project 014-28-782)
  • Verbong, G.P.J., Geels, F.W. (2006) , The ongoing energy transition: Lessons from a socio-technical multi-level analysis of the Dutch electricity system (1960-2004), in: Energy Policy, 35 (2), 1025-1037 (project 014-28-781)
  • Vleuten, E.B.A. van der, Raven, R.P.J.M. (2006) , Lock-in and Change. Distributed Generation in Denmark in a Long-Term Perspective, in: Energy Policy, 34 (18), 3739-3748 (project 014-28-781)
  • Raven, R.P.J.M. (2006) , Towards Alternative Trajectories? Reconfigurations in the Dutch Electricity Regime, in: Research Policy, 35 (4), 581-595 (project 014-28-781)
  • Boelie Elzen and Anna Wieczorek, “Transitions towards sustainability through system innovation”, Technological Forcasting and Social Change, Vol. 72 (6), July 2005, 651-661. (project 014-28-784)
  • Peter S. Hofman, Boelie Elzen and Frank W. Geels, “Sociotechnical scenarios as a new policy tool to explore system innovations: Co-evolution of technology and society in the Netherlands's electricity domain”, Innovation, Vol 6 (2), august 2004, 344-360. (project 014-28-784)

Book chapters (project numbers in brackets)

  • Raven, R, Verbong, G.P.J., Ulmanen, J.H., Gas, alcohol and biodiesel: the case of alternative fuel developments in Sweden. chapter sumbitted f(April 2009) or the Synthesis book of the Industrial Transformation theme within the IHDP-network (project 014-28-782)
  • Verbong, G.P.J., Geels, F.W. (2008) , A long-term historical analysis of path dependencies and changes in the Dutch electricity system: Hindrances and possibilities for future energy transitions, in: J. van den Bergh, F. Bruinsma (eds.), The transition to renewable energy: theory and practice. (project 014-28-781)
  • Verbong, G.P.J. (2006) , Dutch Power Relations. From German Occupation to The French Connection, in: A. Kaijser, E. van der Vleuten (eds.), Networking Europe. Infrastructures and the Shaping of Modern Europe (19th / 20th centuries), Science History Publications, USA, 217-244. (project 014-28-781)
  • Correljé and G. Verbong, The transition to natural gas, in Boelie Elzen, Frank W. Geels and Ken Green (eds.), System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2004) , Ch. 6, 114-135. (deelproject 014-28-781) (project 014-28-781)
  • Boelie Elzen, Frank W. Geels, Peter S. Hofman and Ken Green, ‘Sociotechnical scenarios as a tool for transition policy: an example from the traffic and transport domain’, in Boelie Elzen, Frank W. Geels and Ken Green (eds.), System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2004) , pp.251. (project 014-28-784)
  • R. Hoogma, K.M. Weber and B. Elzen, “Integrated long-term strategies to induce regime shifts towards sustainability: The approach of Strategic Niche Management”, in Matthias Weber and Jens Hemmelskamp (eds.), Towards Environmental Innovation Systems, Berlin: Springer Verlag (2005), pp.209-236. (project 014-28-784)
  • Boelie Elzen, Frank W. Geels en Peter Hofman, “Socio-Technische Scenario’s als hulpmiddel voor Transitiebeleid: Een illustratie voor het domein van personenmobiliteit”, in H.R.J. Volleberg, W.J.H. van Groenendaal, M.W. Hofkes and R. Kemp (red.), Milieubeleid en Technologische Ontwikkeling, Den Haag: Sdu Uitgevers (2004), 169-193. (project 014-28-784)

Other output (selection, project numbers in brackets)

  • Ulmanen, J.H., Raven R.P.J.M. & Verbong G.P.J. (2007) Creating legitimacy for sustainable technology development. The case of biofuels for the transport sector.
  • Paper presented at The 15th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition. May 6-12 2007, Berlin. (project 014-28-782)
  • Meeuwsen, J.J. (2007) , Electricity networks of the future, Various roads to a sustainable energysystem, Final report of project 014-28-783
  • Elzen, B., Hofman P. (2007) , Transition paths towards a sustainable electricity system An exploration using sociotechnical scenarios Description of a sociotechnical scenario methodology and its application for the electricity domain. Final report of project 014-28-784 (project 014-28-784)
  • Elzen, B., Hofman, P.S. (2006) , Sociotechnical scenarios – A new Method to explore Transition Paths towards a Sustainable Electricity System. Paper for ASRELEO workshop Transition and Knowledge Management in the Long Run, Zürich, Switzerland, 5-6 October 2006 (project 014-28-784)
  • Hofman, P.S. (2006) , Scenarios for Industrial Transformation: Perspectives on the CondEcol Case Studies. ProSus Report n. 4/06. Pages 1-54. Oslo: University of Oslo, ProSus (ISBN: 82-90391-54-4, ISSN: 0806-8992)  (project 014-28-784)
  • Hofman, P.S. (2006) , Institutional Change and Transition to Sustainable Electricity Systems, invited presentation to the Research Workshop Infrastructures of Consumption and the Environment – Utility Sector Transformation and the Construction of Demand, Wageningen University, Environmental Policy Group, March 2006 (project 014-28-784)
  • Hofman, P.S. (2006) , Patterns of Innovation and Institutional Change in the Transition to a Sustainable Electricity System, invited presentation to a joint seminar of the Tyndall Centre on Climate Change / Institute of Innovation Research, Universtiy of Manchester, June 2006 (project 014-28-782)
  • Hofman, P.S. (2005) Becoming a first mover in green electricity supply: corporate change driven by liberalisation and climate change, in: K. Begg, F. van der Woerd, and D. Levy (eds.), The Business of Climate Change – Corporate Responses to Kyoto, Greenleaf Publishing, Sheffield: 210-221. (project 014-28-784)
  • G. Verbong, Biedt de energietransitie kansen voor de Nederlandse industrie? Kansen en keuzen vanuit een lange termijn perspectief, Essay geschreven in opdracht van de AER en VROM-raad, Eindhoven 2004, gepubliceerd in december 2004, 56 pp, download from, http://www.energieraad.nl/ (project 014-28-781)
  • G. Verbong, Het netwerk voor elektriciteit in de verandering. Naar een Europese supersnelweg Stedebouw & Ruimtelijke Ordening 85 (2004) nr. 2, 26-29. (project 014-28-781)
  • Hofman P.S. (2003) Embedding Radical Innovations in Society, Report no. 8/03, ProSUS, Oslo, pp 1-97. (project 014-28-784)
  • Hofman P.S. (2003) Transition to a Sustainable Electricity System, Paper for the Greening of Industry Network Conference, San Francisco, 12-15 October. (project 014-28-784)