Energieonderzoek

Dealing with uncertainties in sustainability-led energy infrastructure transitions: An integrated approach

(2003-2009)

Aanvragers:
Prof. dr. ir. W.A.H. Thissen, ir. M. Kuit, prof. Mr dr E. ten Heuvelhof, prof.dr. W.E. Walker, TUD
Prof. dr. A. Faaij, Prof. dr. W. Turkenburg, Prof. dr. M Hekkert, dr. J van der Sluis, prof. R. Smits, UU

Overall aim
The following were the central research questions in the proposal:

  • How and to what extent can different uncertainties relevant to transitions in the energy infrastructure towards sustainability be identified and assessed in a systematic manner
  • How can stakeholder perceptions on uncertainties be identified, and what is the best way to deal with them in light of actor’s strategic behaviour and of the institutional setting? 
  • What integrative strategies (behavioural as well as analytical) can be designed to deal with the major uncertainties in an effective way, acknowledging that a significant part of the uncertainties cannot easily be eliminated?

The following results can be specified:

  • A framework for identifying different uncertainties affecting actor behaviour in the energy system has been developed and tested
  • Exploratory Modelling and Analysis has been tested on a model of residential energy use and proven to be a promising method for systematic exploration of deep uncertainties.
  • Key uncertainties have been identified and assessed regarding their importance with respect to actor behaviour in specific (technological) innovation settings
  • Policy recommendations have been given based on this insight
  • (System) analytic methodologies have been (en still are being) developed and tested to explore ranges of  possible future development  pathways for a number of energy subsystems
  • An integrative model has been developed guiding policy choices related to the extent of uncertainty and actor motivation


Dissemination of results
A partially integrating end product is currently under development (part of project 1). This end product reports on analyses and policy relevant results, mainly from projects 3 and 1 [project 2 will only be finished by April 2010]. This integrating report was foreseen in the initial programme design. Several meetings were held and presentations given, for example at the ministry of economic affairs, and at NWO Senter Novem meetings. Both in the context of energy policy, and more broadly, in infrastructure policies (transport, e.g. harbour design, airport planning, ICT systems planning, adaptation to climate change), the awareness has risen that uncertainties are significant and that many of them are irreduceable, and that better ways of preparedness, for example more flexible system design and adaptive policy management are called for.  More specifically, the energy transition task force showed great interest, and recognition of the relevance of the research and of some of the findings. In discussions, however, several public servants would have preferred an approach which would help them choose among technologies under uncertainty, rather than an approach advocating flexibility and keeping options open in light of uncertainty.
More specifically, the thesis of Ineke Meijer was well received. She has given interviews on the radio and several interviews in newspapers and professional journals.
Further evidence of relevance can be found in the fact that Enexis, the former network division of Essent, is sponsoring a PhD project at the policy analysis section of TUDelft to help them deal with future uncertainties in a better way.

Project 1: Dealing with uncertainties in sustainability-led energy infrastructure transitions: Integrated Analysis and Design

Dr. E. Pruyt

Download hier het Nederlandse factsheet

The main aim of Project 1 was the integration of the qualitative/actor-institutional research (project 3) and the quantitative/economic-technical systems research (project 2) related to uncertainties in the transition to a sustainable energy infrastructure.  Five lines of work were (and some still are) performed in view of that aim.

  • A framework for integrated quantitative/systems and qualitative/actor-institutional research was developed as well as a framework for mapping uncertainties studied and gaps remaining.
  • Uncertainties studied in project 3 were studied, further elaborated by means of innovative qualitative scenario approaches, and integrated in a Multi-Actor Systems perspective. With regard to uncertainty and motivation, following recommendations may be distilled from this line of work.
    • System delays should be reduced as much as possible.
    • Uncertainties hindering (potentially) desirable developments should be reduced [and avoided being created].
    • Promising technologies should be allowed to develop over time (in order to reap the learning effects) and sufficient resources for initial actions and investments should be provided in favourable combinations of uncertainty/motivation: If the uncertainties are high and intrinsic entrepreneurial motivation for action is high, then entrepreneurs should not be hindered. If uncertainty is high and intrinsic entrepreneurial motivation is moderate, then resources should be provided to initiate/facilitate initial actions/investments. If uncertainty is high and motivation low then support should not be given.
  • Quantitative systems results still need to be further elaborated and integrated (project 2 is planned to be finished in 2010).
  • Integrated system dynamics modeling and simulation was performed to further explore some uncertainties, possible evolutions, and potential problems. Three different types of models were developed:
    • Energy technology models to study the isolated dynamics of diffusion of particular technologies (e.g. wind power), without taking other technologies into account. These models can be used to study the modes of behaviour given different assumptions, formulations and policies. Mostly they only make sense on higher levels than the Dutch level. Results of these models are to be used with care because in the real world technologies do not develop in isolation and systems are also driven by real actor interactions/behaviour.
    • Energy system interactions models to study the dynamics of competition between several technologies, both detailed/specific models (e.g. a EU27 electricity generation infrastructure transition model) and generic/high-level models (e.g. generic “Concentrate versus Spread” simulation models and an experimental simulation model related to entrepreneurial uncertainty and motivation based on project 3). It may be concluded that somewhat more concentration of government support may be desirable. Government support may have to be directed to those technologies/projects/phases that are really important for, or can (only) be reaped in, the Netherlands, or that fail without Dutch contribution. Cherry picking of technologies may have to take technology-specific characteristics (e.g. potentiality), system characteristics (e.g. dynamics at system level), and actor characteristics (e.g. motivation, knowledge base) into account. Adaptive innovation policies that are sufficiently stimulating and regulating may be needed.
    • Simulation models dealing with System-of-Systems and/or cross-function interactions (e.g. the impact of the large-scale development of ‘Smart Mobile Grids’, and the impact of the large-scale production of bio-energy). The main conclusion of these models is that it is extremely important to look beyond traditional boundaries because many uncertainties and limitations may be found there.
  • Multi-Actor Systems games are currently under development. In these ‘serious’ model-supported games, real people acting as decision makers add actor complexity/intelligence and underlying systems models add system complexity/intelligence. These games can be used for experimental, validation and training/learning purposes. The Multi-Actor Systems games integrate elements from all three projects.

Project 2: System studies of energy infrastructure options and development trajectories over time; methodology development and strategy design with inclusion of uncertainty analyses from techno-economic perspective

ing. L. Dittmar

Download hier het Engelstalige factsheet

Project 2 analyses the implication of key uncertainties on the long term development of the energy and infrastructural system in several sectoral case studies. Strong focus is laid on quantitative energy system modelling methods. Key to the methodological approach of project 2 is the explicit incorporation of uncertainties into energy system analyses. Technology-explicit, quantitative models have been applied and developed to simulate the development of the Dutch energy system. Most commonly in energy system analyses it is dealt with uncertainties in the framework of scenarios analyses. However, while there is no way to treat all the uncertainties associated with the future, there are alternatives other than conventional scenarios for analyzing them. Different approaches of uncertainty (and sensitivity) analysis, such as Monte Carlo analyses, Design of Experiment, Stochastic optimization, and Exploratory Modeling, are employed.

Insights from the case studies on the residential built environment confirm the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in long term energy system assessment. We developed the Dutch Residential Energy Model (DREM) for systematically analysing future energy use and associated carbon emissions from the Dutch dwellings across a variety of uncertainties such as demographics, investment behaviour, fuel prices, energy policy and technological development. The analyses with DREM, done jointly with a PhD from TU Delft (D.B. Agusdinata) show that demographics, dwelling stock turnover, energy prices, energy policy (subsidies, building codes), and heating degree days are among the most significant uncertainties with respect to the development of the residential built environment up to 2050. Furthermore, we found that multiple sets of conditions may lead to similar results, i.e. a similar emission level can be reached as result of different possible realisations of system variables such as technology deployment, stock turnover rate, demographic activity etc. However, we also identified the strong relevance of path dependency, especially with respect to the existing building stock. Measures omitted in the near term future are barely compensated later on, even with high subsidies on refurbishment and serve building codes.

Besides the analyses of the future developments, DREM has also been applied in retrospective manner in order to analyse the success of the diffusion of condensing boilers in the Netherlands. The analyses show that only the second half of the diffusion process (from 1988 on) can be explained by the economic viability and technological learning dynamics of condensing boilers. In fact, in the early phase of the diffusion process (from 19981-1986) conditions were in favour of condensing boilers as fuel prices were high and, additionally, subsidies were granted. However, in this phase the condensing boiler market was to a large extent determined by factors, other than economic viability. These factors include training of installers, uncertainties about the reliability of technology and household infrastructures. The insights gained from the ex-post prognosis of the diffusion process of condensing boilers are transferred to a case study where diffusion of micro-CHP, the possible successor of the condensing boilers, is explored.

Another case study dealt with the potential role of data centres and ICT in the future energy systems. Data centres, i.e. centralized facilities for processing, management, and dissemination of data and information, have become essential to the functioning of contemporary socio-economic systems. In recent years, however, concern about data centres’ soaring energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions emerged. Currently, Information technology, and data centres as an important part of it, is estimated to account for 2 percent of global CO2 emissions. For 2020, some studies even expect the data centre industry to emit more CO2 than aviation industry. The potential role as well as impact of data centres on future energy systems is highly uncertain. Our analyses show that the data centre industry in Germany and the Netherlands will experience strong growth, but the current debate is rather overdrawn as the overall impact of data centres on energy, emissions and the energy infrastructure will be moderate compared to the current expectations. However, the impact of data centres on local energy infrastructures, such as in Amsterdam or in Frankfurt, can be enormous.

Ongoing Work project 2
Currently Lars Dittmar is working on the power sector. In the coming decades the power sector will undergo major changes. A number of possible power system configurations are under discussion. Furthermore a number of European and national targets are set for the electricity sector (e.g. the triple 20 target). Some of the envisaged development trajectories and targets respectively may possibly interfere (e.g. large scale centralised application of carbon capture and storage, decentralised CHP, and high penetration rates of wind energy). Recent research revealed that already in the near-term future base-load problems may arise at high penetration levels of wind energy. For those reasons, a detailed analysis of proposed system configurations and transition paths, scrutinizing the interplay between base-load technologies, decentralised generation and intermittent resources, is indispensable. Such an analysis should provide a framework for assessing the (techno-economic) implications and feasibility of development trajectories, including analyses of the impacts of key uncertainties in this respect. For this kind of investigation a model with a high sub-annual time resolution is necessary in order to reflect the specific, time related characteristics of power systems. Balmorel – in contrast to other model such as Markal- is a model which allows for such an analysis and will be applied in this context. The experience gained from the application of uncertainty analysis methods from the other case studies can be transferred to the power sector. This case study will be finalized in December 2009.
The PhD thesis will be handed in by June 2010.

Project 3: Managing uncertainties in energy innovations and transition processes

Dr. I. Meijer

Dissertation ‘Uncertainty and entrepreneurial action. The role of uncertainty in the development of emerging energy technologies.'
Nederlandse samenvatting lang / Nederlands factsheet / volledige proefschrift

Project 3 started with developing a framework for classification and identification of uncertainties. The primary and first goal of this project was to identify and analyse which types of uncertainties play a key role in the innovation decisions that are part of the transition to a more sustainable energy system. Starting point for this analysis was the hypothesis that depending on the type of actor, the type of technology, and the type of innovation process, different categories of uncertainties will dominate the decision problem. Therefore, the analysis used a bottom-up method combined with a multi-actor perspective for the analysis.
The second goal of this project was to design and evaluate steering arrangements to effectively deal with uncertainties in transition to a sustainable energy system.

In 2004, a theoretical framework was made, which links a typology of perceived uncertainties to the sequential transition phases (pre-development, take-off, acceleration, stabilization) and to the type of actors. The next step was to link this framework to the behaviour of actors under uncertainties and to define starting points for design of steering arrangements. Therefore, ms Meijer extended the theoretical framework. We used transition and innovation theories to distinguish a list of key activities that determine the progress of a technological trajectory from one phase of transformation to the next. We link this list of key activities to the theoretical framework developed so far, by the following two assumptions. The first assumption is that different type of actors will react differently to perceived uncertainties. Namely, perceived uncertainties might stimulate some actors in fulfilling the key activities that are crucial for achieving a transition, while blocking others from undertaking these key activities. The second assumption is that different perceived uncertainties as well as different key activities will dominate in different transition phases.

We have tested the complete theoretical framework in the first empirical case on micro-CHP. In 2006 Ineke Meijer has finished the empirical data collection of the second case-study, which focuses on biomass gasification. In this case, she attempted to capture the dynamics of the transition process, by analyzing the role of uncertainties over time. Based on the empirical work of Simona Negro (a PhD student at the University of Utrecht, whose research is part of the BioPush-program of NWO), we have reconstructed the dominant events of the development of biomass gasification in the Netherlands. We used this ‘event analysis’ to structure the interview questions, in order to identify the perceptions of uncertainties and reactions to these uncertainties for different actors and at different moments in time.  In 2006 also the data of the third case study has been collected. This case study deals with biomass combustion. Since biomass combustion is a more proven technology, it is interesting to compare this case to biomass gasification. In the first quarter of 2007, the last case has been finalised. The case and its results are integrated in a chapter of her PhD dissertation which was defended in june, 2008.

Main conclusions of the project include:

  • the utility of the uncertainty framework as developed
  • political, technological and resource uncertainties are the most dominant ones in the perception of actors in innovation systems;
  • entrepreneurs are generally less sensitive to uncertainties than other actors (who mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude in light of large uncertainties) 
  • the government should try to reduce uncertainties and negative interactions among actors about them, not only in the development phase of new technologies, but also in the take-off phase.

Output

Proefschriften

  • Meijer: Uncertainty and entrepreneurial action: The role of uncertainty in the development of emerging energy Technologies. PhD dissertation, Utrecht University, june 13, 2008
  • D.B. Agusdinata: Exploratory Modeling and Analysis. A promising method to deal with deep uncertainty. PhD dissertation, Delft University of Technology, april 28, 2008. (not NWO-sponsored, but one of the three cases resulted from close cooperation with project 2)

Publicaties in internationale tijdschriften

  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J. Faber, R.E.H.M. Smits. (2006) : Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformation: towards a framework . International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. Vol. 2, No. 2, p 214-240
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J.F.M. Koppenjan (2007). "How perceived uncertainties influence transitions; the case of micro-CHP in the Netherlands." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74 (4): 519-537.
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J.F.M. Koppenjan (2007). "The influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in emerging renewable energy technology; biomass gasification projects in the Netherlands." Energy Policy 35(11): 5836-5854.
  • Meijer, I. S. M. and M. P. Hekkert (2007). "Managing uncertainties in the transition towards sustainability: the cases of emerging energy technologies in the Netherlands." Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning 9(3-4): 281 - 298.
  • Weiss, M.; Junginger, M.; Dittmar, L.; Blok, K. and M. Patel (2009): Market diffusion, technological learning, and cost-benefit dynamics of condensing gas boilers in the Netherlands. Energy Policy (Forthcoming)
  • Dittmar, L.:, Schaefer, M.; Clevers, S. (2009) : The data centre energy crisis: Myth or Reality (working title) in preparation for Information and Organization Special Issue on Green IT/IS June 2009.

Internationale boek bijdragen (geen abstracts)

  • D.B. Agusdinata, L. Dittmar, and D. DeLaurentis (2008): Policymaking to Reduce Carbon Emissions: An Application of System-of-Systems Perspective. In: Mo Jamshidi (ed).;  System of Systems – Principles and Applications. CRC Press / Taylor and Francis 

Publicaties in overige tijdschriften en andere wetenschappelijke output:

  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J. Faber, R.E.H.M. Smits. Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a typology. Paper presented at the DRUID Winter Conference on Industrial Dynamics, Innovation and Development, Kørping, Denmark, 27-29 January, 2005
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert. Perceived uncertainties regarding the transformation towards sustainability. Conference proceedings. 11th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 6-8 June, 2005.
  • De Haan, A.R.C., D.E. Grande. 2005 Sustainable Development in Practice: A comparison of the operationalized concept for technological innovations in aviation and the Dutch energy system. Conference proceedings of the 11th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 6-8 June, 2005. [014 – 28 – 721
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J.F.M. Koppenjan. Perceived uncertainties regarding the transition towards sustainability, the case of micro CHP. Paper presented at the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community (IHDP), Bonn, Germany, 9-13 October 2005.
  • Grande, D.E. (2005) Flexibility in Dutch Energy Infrastructure: A Perspective for Decision-making under Uncertainty.  Presentation, Public Programs & Processes Cluster, INFORMS Annual Meeting, November
  • Darby E. Grande: Scenario Analysis for Evaluation of the Future Sustainability of an Energy Infrastructure System. Paper presented at the 2006 International Conference of the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA), Stavanger, Norway, may 23-26, 2006
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert. Managing uncertainties in the transition towards sustainability: the cases of emerging energy technologies in the Netherlands. Paper presented at the workshop ‘Governance for Sustainable Development - Steering in Contexts of Uncertainty, Ambivalence, and Distributed Control’, Berlin, 5-7 February 2006.
    Website: http://www.sozial-oekologische-forschung.org/de/664.php
  • Meijer, I.S.M., M.P. Hekkert, J.F.M. Koppenjan. Managing uncertainties in emerging technological trajectories; The case of biomass gasification in the Netherlands. Paper presented at the SPRU 40th Anniversary Conference; The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy, Brighton, 11-13 September 2006.
    Website: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/spru/events/ocs/index.php
  • Pruyt, E., Thissen, W.A.H., 2007. Transition of the European Electricity System and System of Systems Concepts. 2007 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering. San Antonio, Texas, USA, April 16th – 18th, 2007, http://www.ieeesose2007.org/
  • Agusdinata, D. and L. Dittmar (2007). System-of-systems perspective and exploratory modeling to support the design of adaptive policy for reducing carbon emission. In Proceedings of the IEEE SMC International Conference on System of Systems Engineering, 2007, San Antonio. ISBN: 1-4244-1160-2. DOI: 10.1109/SYSOSE.2007.4304305
  • Pruyt, E., 2007a, The EU-25 Power Sector: a System Dynamics Model of Competing Electricity Generation Technologies. The 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 29 – August 2, 2007, Boston ISBN 978-0-9745329-8-1.
    http://systemdynamics.org/conferences/2007/proceed/index.htm
  • Pruyt, E, 2007b. Dealing with Uncertainty? Combining System Dynamics with Multicriteria Decision Analysis or with Exploratory Modelling. Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. ISBN 978-0-9745329-8-1.
    http://systemdynamics.org/conferences/2007/proceed/index.htm
  • Pruyt, E. and G. De Sitter (2008, July). Food or Energy? Is that the question? In B. Dangerfield (Ed.), Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Athens, pp.1–20. The System Dynamics Society: The System Dynamics Society. ISBN: 978-1-935056-01-0. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2008/proceed/index.html
  • Pruyt, E., W. Thissen, and I. Meijer (2008, November). Integrated uncertainty analysis for dealing with uncertainties in sustainability-led energy infrastructure transitions. In P. Herder et al. (Eds.) , Proceedings of the International Conference on Infrastructure Systems: Building Networks for a Brighter Future, Rotterdam, pp.1–6. NGInfra: IEEE.
  • Du, W., E. Pruyt, W. Thissen, and H. Slootweg (2008, November). An application of scenario analysis for long-term electricity distribution network development. In P. Herder et al. (Eds.) , Proceedings of the International Conference on Infrastructure Systems: Building Networks for a Brighter Future, Rotterdam, pp. pp.1–6. NGInfra: IEEE.

Publicaties in Nederlandse tijdschriften / Nederlandse boek bijdragen (geen abstracts) / Publicaties in de vaktijdschriften / Andere wetenschappelijke output en toekomstige wetenschappelijke output:

  • Meijer, I.S.M., Managing uncertainties in energy transition processes. Poster presentation at the WTMC Summer School, Ravenstein, 15-19 Augustus 2005.
  • Best poster award for the presentation of Pruyt, E. and G. De Sitter (2008, July). Food or Energy? Is that the question? In B. Dangerfield (Ed.), Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Athens, pp.1–20. The System Dynamics Society: The System Dynamics Society. ISBN: 978-1-935056-01-0. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2008/proceed/index.html
  • Lars Dittmar: (2008): Uncertainties in Energy Scenarios. Workshop on the Performance and Limitations of Energy Scenarios, organized by: Federation of German Industries (BDI) and Prognoseforum, Berlin, Germany, 2008.
  • Pruyt, E. 2008. Energy Investment Games. TUD Working Paper.
  • Pruyt, E. 2009. Towards a Sustainable Energy System? Contribution and Potentiality of European Bio-Energy. Under development: To be presented at the 2009 Euro Conference in Bonn.
  • Pruyt, E. 2009. Wind power potentiality. Under development: To be submitted to Energy Policy or a similar journal.
  • Dittmar, L.:, Schaefer, M. (2009) : Electricity Demand Modelling of German Data Centres: Dealing with Uncertainties. Paper accepted at the 32nd IAEE International Conference, San Francisco, CA, USA